This is not true. It tends to go this direction, but isn’t certain. With 5 equipped and last one with a green plus and “EQUIP” below and the badge in question being crafted for each hero (so, multiples)… the chance isn’t there.
Again - that it doesn’t happen to you does not mean the chance is not there. That’s like with climate change discussions, with the deniers.
Sad truth - this cannot be mitigated. Even if the last 10 badges are the last Y20 badges possible to get with badge crates - the fallback will be there. @Loutre the badge crate in this regard is very vaguely programmed. Which is odd since the coding is pretty exact and specified.